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Investing in humanoid robots: 2025, betting on the future or stepping into a bubble?

2025-10-17

1. Hot Trends in the Industry by 2025: Technological Breakthroughs Ignite Capital Interest

The Humanoid Robot racing track in 2025 has transitioned from "concept hype" to "technical realization," with three major changes that have caused capital to refocus:
 
- Mass production capabilities are being realized: Leading companies are taking the lead in overcoming the scalability bottleneck. Tesla Optimus, with its modular design, is capable of producing 300 units per month. The UBTech Walker S is being used for material handling tasks in BYD's factory. Domestic company Guohua Smart has further lowered the price of full-scale humanoid roBots ODM to 149,900 yuan, and the price of its harmonic rotational joint module starts at 999 yuan, significantly reducing the industry's entry barrier.
- Core technology localization: Breakthroughs have been made in key components that were previously "held back." The Green Harmonic RV reducer achieves precision down to 1 arc-minute, the double-ring transmission planetary roller screw screw has a lifespan exceeding 100,000 hours, and the market share of domestic servo motors has risen to 45%, driving a 44% decrease in the overall cost of the complete system compared to 2024.
- Scope of application expansion: No longer limited to display functions, industrial and public service scenarios are taking the lead in implementation—Leju "Kua Fu" is performing part selection at FAW Hongqi Factory, Haier "HIVA Haiwa" is acting as a "cyber butler" to control household appliances, and Aoxia Smart Exoskeleton Robot is assisting the elderly in a nursing home, creating a pattern of "industrial implementation first, service penetration slower."
 
The enthusiasm for capital has risen accordingly: the government has established a 60 billion yuan artificial intelligence fund, and opportunities for deploying tens of thousands of robots have been released in places like Beijing and Guangdong. On the secondary market, the share prices of companies related to the core components of humanoid robots have seen an average increase of over 60% year-on-year. Among these, companies specializing in joint modules have seen their market value double from the beginning of the year due to a surge in orders.

2. Cold Thinking: Commercialization Pain Points that Remain Unsolved in 2025

Although driven by both technology and technology, humanoid robots still have three hurdles to "mass commercialization," let the primary market keep rationality:
 
- Cost and return imbalance: Although low-priced products have been launched, the average price of industrial-grade humanoid robots with full functions is still more than 200,000 yuan, and the investment return cycle for SMEs is as long as 2.5 years (large enterprises about 1.8 years). A logistics company calculated that replacing manual handling with robots requires continuous use for 3 years to recover costs, far exceeding the expected 1.5 years.
- Inadequate scene adaptability: bipedal robots still have "hard injuries" - in the Beijing Yizhuang humanoid robot half marathon, none of the robots can run continuously for the whole course, and the endurance is generally less than 1 hour; in unstructured environments such as shopping malls and homes, obstacle avoidance accuracy and naturalness of human-computer interaction are still not up to expectations, resulting in most service scenes being "pilot level," without forming large-scale replication.
- Technical bottlenecks need to be broken through: The generalization ability of AI algorithms is limited, and the decision-making response speed in the face of sudden situations (such as falling objects and pedestrians crossing) is 0.8 seconds slower than that of humans; "soft technology" such as tactile sensors and flexible materials still lags behind international standards. When robots grasp fragile items such as eggs and cloth, the breakage rate exceeds 8%, which is difficult to meet the needs of precision services.
 
This has also led to a "pragmatic" bias in first-tier market investment: In the first half of 2025, China's robot industry disclosed financing of more than 5 billion yuan, but humanoid robot-related financing accounted for only 8%, and most capital preferred to invest in industrial robots, service robots and other "short, flat and fast" tracks, such as logistics robot companies completing $100 million in financing, photovoltaic cleaning robot companies obtaining Pre-A round funding led by Hillhouse.

3. Reeman's Breakthrough Path: Anchoring on "Technology Implementation" to Avoid the Bubble Trap

In the face of industry differences, Reeman has opted for a differentiated approach centered on "technical breakthroughs + focus on specific scenarios," which aligns with the industry's emphasis on "practical innovation" by 2025.
 
- Focus on industrial niche scenarios: Avoid the highly competitive household service sector and target "standardized scenarios" in logistics and manufacturing—develop a wheeled humanoid robot with a variable structure consisting of "four-wheeled legs + two-wheeled legs." The battery life is extended to 5-6 hours, and the cost is 30% lower than that of a dual-legged product. This robot is already being used in supermarkets and warehouses for integrated services such as "inventory checking + material handling." A single robot can handle over 200 orders per day, which is 40% more efficient than manual handling.
- Striving to reduce costs for core components: Collaborating with domestic supply chain development to create a "low-cost joint module," utilizing a simplified version of the harmonic drive design. This approach ensures industrial-grade precision (±5 arc seconds) while reducing costs to one-third of the price of imported products. Additionally, a "rental + maintenance" model is introduced, allowing companies to use the robot with a monthly rental fee of 5,000 yuan, thereby significantly lowering the initial investment threshold.
- Benefiting from policy advantages: Participating in the pilot project of "Robotics + Manufacturing" in Beijing, providing customized handling solutions for automotive parts manufacturers, and benefiting from a 30% government purchase subsidy due to the use of "domestic core components" and "localized services." This not only reduces the cost for customers but also quickly opens up the market. In the first half of 2025, orders in industrial settings saw a year-on-year increase of 120%.

4. Investment Conclusion for 2025: Choose "Practical Individuals," Reject "Idea-Driven Parties"

Investing in humanoid robots is no longer about "taking a chance on a trend" by 2025; it's about "selecting the best candidate." To determine whether an enterprise is worth investing in, three key factors should be considered:
 
1. Whether core technology is mastered: Avoid companies that rely solely on "assembly." Focus on companies like Reeman that have autonomous joint module technology and motion control algorithms. Such companies can maintain competitiveness as costs decrease and technology evolves.
2. Is there a clear implementation scenario? Prioritize projects that have already achieved "small-batch commercial use" in standardized scenarios such as industry and logistics, rather than those that are still in the "laboratory demonstration" phase. Such projects can more quickly validate the business model.
3. Whether to control the cost rhythm: Be cautious of enterprises that blindly pursue "full functionality," and pay attention to players who can "reduce specifications and lower costs" based on the needs of the situation, such as using wheeled locomotion instead of bipedal movement or simplifying non-core functions to cater to the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In 2025, the humanoid robot racing track will be filled with both bubbles and opportunities: enterprises that rely solely on "following trends" and lack technological barriers will eventually be eliminated. On the other hand, companies like Reeman, which have deeply invested in technology and focused on practical applications, will be able to seize the true future opportunities as the industry moves from the "Year of Mass Production" to the "Year of Commercial Breakthrough".

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